What Happened... and the Path Forward
Some thoughts about the 2024 election, lessons we can learn, and how we all can and must fight against disinformation
By: Devin Hughes
Disinformation’s role in the election and the Firehose of Falsehood on crime
Two days after the election in which Donald Trump won the electoral college and popular vote against Kamala Harris — if by a historically close margin — the Brookings Institute released the article “How disinformation defined the 2024 election narrative.”
This assessment that disinformation played a major role in the outcome of the presidential election is crucial, and covers all the major policy issues the campaigns focused on.
In particular, an Ipsos poll in mid-October showed, on four questions concerning the biggest policy issues being debated in the elections, the question most highly correlated with voting for Harris or Trump was about whether crime was increasing or decreasing, with those who got the answer wrong overwhelmingly voting for Trump.
YouGov data covering voters' presidential preferences on who would handle crime better also shows voters moving towards Trump a month before the election.
The shift in voter preferences combined with the partisan split concerning whether crime was increasing or decreasing coincided with one of the largest, deliberate, single-issue disinformation campaigns in U.S. history.
On October 16th, just three weeks away from the election, gun lobby mouthpiece John Lott published an investigation claiming that the FBI was covertly editing its data to hide a crime increase — an escalation of his previous widespread claims in August and September arguing that crime surged under the Biden administration and fell under the Trump administration. As GVPedia detailed at the time, these allegations were the product of blatant data manipulation and a web of falsehoods, but that didn’t change what happened next.
Every major right-of-center publication and pro-gun organization amplified Lott’s fabrications in the following weeks. Fox News ran multiple segments on the manufactured scandal. Elon Musk and his PAC dedicated to electing Trump both amplified Lott’s allegations. The Trump campaign turned the claims into a standard talking point, with Trump surrogates on CNN and other platforms touting the claim that the FBI was covertly changing statistics to influence the election.
On October 31st, just a week before the election, Representative James Comer on behalf of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability called for an investigation into the FBI based purely on Lott’s false claims.
The response to this Firehose of Falsehood on crime was overwhelming silence. The mainstream media did feature a few fact-checks of whether crime was increasing or decreasing, but none directly dealt with Lott’s allegations, and none mentioned Lott by name (much less his storied history of fraud and ethical misconduct).
Facts matter. Disinformation matters. If they didn’t, the entire right wing operational structure would not have spent the resources to amplify Lott’s crime claims to at least 100 million Americans. And with Trump’s victory, along with his alliance with the richest man in the world, the Firehose of Falsehood with respect to gun violence could grow in strength.
To be clear, it is highly unlikely that a coordinated campaign to counter the Firehose of Falsehood on crime alone would have been sufficient to alter the result of the election, particularly given the prevalence of other crucial issues. Yet doing nothing forfeited the playing field to the Firehose and guaranteed more people believed falsehoods than would’ve otherwise.
Over the past few years, we here at GVPedia have warned about the power of disinformation as a root cause of gun violence, and more recently about the election-related Firehose of Falsehood on crime.
November’s election results, as dark as they are, will hopefully serve as a clarion call about the necessity to counter the Firehose of Falsehood, as well as implementing the foundational measures to defeat it.
What is in the past cannot be undone, but it must inform our future.
What needs to be done
The gun violence prevention movement, and those politically left-of-center more broadly, have three choices: silo ourselves away from anyone with differing views and forfeit every election for the foreseeable future; chase where polls say a majority of Americans currently stand on policy issues while sacrificing principles; or educate ourselves and the American public while fighting disinformation.
Countering the Firehose of Falsehood and inoculating people against disinformation — particularly the lie that guns make us safer — must become a priority.
Research on countering a disinformation campaign shows that pushing out facts and personal stories, while incredibly important, are not sufficient to defeat such a campaign on their own. Changing minds is possible, but only when disinformation is directly challenged, refuted, and replaced with a fact-based narrative. Until then, the gun lobby will continue winning.
As one example of the ongoing triumph of the gun lobby’s Firehose of Falsehood, in the immediate wake of the election there are a substantial number of liberal women who are seeking to purchase firearms for the first time. While the fear motivating these purchases is justified, the solution reached for will only make them less safe.
We must be able to clearly articulate why guns will not make you safer along with providing a menu of options for what can legitimately improve safety (accompanied by what policies and programs will make society overall safer). There is fear, and then the reaction to that fear. Our only viable option is to influence the reaction.
To counter the Firehose of Falsehood, organizations can implement the following strategies:
Match the breadth and scope of the disinformation campaign with their own Firehose of Truth.
Deploy inoculation campaigns to counter disinformation, involving informational “vaccines” that expose people to a piece of disinformation in a controlled setting, and then thoroughly explain why it is inaccurate.
Enact “deep canvassing” tactics that rely on canvassers listening attentively and encouraging empathy instead of traditional canvassing techniques.
Focus on the populations most at risk of being swayed by the ongoing disinformation campaign rather than directly challenging the Firehose of Falsehood.
Avoid attempting to overtly silence the opposition, as such efforts will most likely prove ineffective, and may actually substantially strengthen the disinformation campaign.
At the personal level, a 4 stage process for persuasion can be effective, with each stage requiring its own distinct approach:
Circumventing tribal barriers by meeting people where they are, establishing emotional credibility through personal narratives, and building trust.
Exploring the other person’s beliefs and core values by respectfully questioning, listening, and arming.
Building a fact-based foundation that aligns with the other person’s values, and using inoculation techniques to protect against future disinformation.
Motivating the person to action with a single emotionally powerful story, and having them commit to at least a small action that can be built on over time.
To learn more about these strategies and the research behind their effectiveness, please visit our page on countering the Firehose of Falsehood.
What GVPedia will do
GVPedia’s plan to help fight disinformation includes the following:
Expand on our current work. We will continue publishing articles on the Armed With Reason substack and reach out to ever more voices from across the movement, providing them with a space to share their thoughts with the GVP community. Our data visualization tool will continue to incorporate more features and data. We will continue adding more academic studies to our database, along with publishing our own analyses and research.
Leverage the power of AI to synthesize data from multiple sources and counter disinformation. There have been several recent academic studies showing the power of AI to help counter conspiracy theories and “prebunk” false claims about elections. Broader AI programs have a “garbage in, garbage out” problem of trying to combine popular accurate and inaccurate information that can lead to bizarre results. However, by carefully calibrating the parameters of the information an AI program will draw on while carefully curating that data, it can be a powerful tool in countering the Firehose of Falsehood. Such a resource will make data and research even more accessible to advocates and the public.
Create a Nexus of information and resources, one where anyone can answer any question they have about GVP in mere moments rather than having to search across dozens of websites and organizations. Such a Nexus will be able to provide not just the simple answers, but also direct people to the source material for those answers. Instead of constantly duplicating efforts that waste precious time and money, we can instead rely on the differing expertise of a variety of organizations to build a responsive fact-based mosaic of information.
Build bridges between the academic and advocacy worlds, as well as connect individuals across all those spaces. There is a general lack of communication across various organizations, as well as between experts and those who rely on the work of said experts.
Do whatever it takes to counter the Firehose of Falsehood. Debunking disinformation has been a priority for GVPedia since its founding. Going forward, everything GVPedia builds and produces is with the end goal of providing accessible high-quality information and exposing falsehoods. This will include not only our standard articles and reports, but also presentations to help spread the knowledge necessary to defeat the Firehose.
As GVPedia’s capacity increases, so too will our ability to accomplish these goals and provide the movement with even better assistance.
What you can do to help
GVPedia cannot do this alone. Fortunately, fighting disinformation is something every organization and individual can do.
If you are a member or leader of an organization, please consider making education and countering disinformation a central part of what you do with the previously mentioned strategies.
This doesn’t mean everyone needs to be an expert in gun violence statistics and have an instant rebuttal ready for John Lott and other purveyors of disinformation. But there is more that all of us, including GVPedia, can learn in the gun violence prevention space. Knowing who experts are on a range of GVP topics is quite helpful in order to have the resources ready to answer questions or concerns that may arise during conversations.
GVPedia stands ready to aid in building these bridges and making information more accessible and disinformation easier to refute.
If you are an individual who cares about GVP, there is a great deal of power in having conversations. This doesn’t mean chatting up the nearest Proud Boy, but there are a wide range of people who are worth talking with, from those apathetic or sitting on the fence about GVP, to those considering purchasing a firearm, to existing gun owners who might not know the risks guns pose and the best safety practices to implement.
Particularly if you live in a conservative area, being able to have knowledgeable conversations with your neighbors and friends who may currently disagree with you can slowly change the tide. Most people know very little about the state of gun violence and gun laws in the U.S., and that provides an opportunity to move the needle. Even changing one mind is a victory.
GVPedia stands ready to help provide the resources to form the factual foundation for those conversations.
Support your local, state, and national GVP organizations. The coming years are going to be challenging for all of us, but will also provide an opportunity to restructure and reorganize as a movement, solidifying the foundations of a brighter future for when the darkness abates.
To help GVPedia achieve our goals in providing ever more accessible resources, please subscribe to the Armed With Reason substack, share our work, and encourage your friends and colleagues interested in GVP to do so as well. If you have already subscribed, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription (we will be rolling out benefits for paid subscribers at the start of the new year). And if you already have a paid subscription, please consider donating.
As President of GVPedia, I receive no compensation, so any funds go directly to expanding our capacity to build more resources, help others, and counter the Firehose of Falsehood.
No matter your level of support, thank you, and may we continue to work together in the years ahead.
Devin Hughes is the founder of GVPedia, a gun violence prevention nonprofit that provides access to research about gun violence and counters disinformation.
Lead photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash.
excellent summary of the devastating consequences of disinformation. also appreciate the wide-ranging list of action steps. thank you Devin, for continuing to do the vital work of countering the Firehose of Falsehood. now more than ever, our collective safety depends on these efforts to fight back with clear-eyed truth.