The Manufacturing of a Crime Surge
The gun lobby’s firehose of falsehood has entered the presidential campaign
By: Devin Hughes
Dueling claims about crime rates have become a centerpiece of the 2024 presidential race.
Vice President Kamala Harris and her allies have pointed out that official crime rates have fallen over the past several years after increasing sharply during former President Donald Trump’s presidency. Meanwhile, former President Trump and his surrogates have invoked what they call a “migrant crime wave,” linking the issue of crime to a surge of migration across the southern border and what they refer to as “lawless Democrat-run cities.”
This debate increased in prominence after Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg challenged Fox News in late July to “do yourself a favor and look up the data" in response to claims of migrant-fueled crime. When one looks up this data, as several fact checking organizations have, the numbers largely back up Harris’ assertion.
For example, during Trump’s presidency from 2017-2021, the most serious form of crime — homicide or murder — increased 24% and 26%, respectively. Meanwhile, during Biden’s presidency, data from the FBI and Council of Criminal Justice both show massive decreases in violent crime in 2023, and preliminary 2024 data shows this rapid decrease continuing, spearheaded by a historic drop in murder.
These crime numbers are well below 2020 figures and are nearing pre-pandemic lows. Gun violence data confirms the same trends. So where do claims of rising crime originate?
When hard data is cited to support Republican claims, it usually comes from pro-gun commentator John Lott, who has unleashed a blizzard of op-eds this summer accusing Democrats of hiding an “explosion” in crime. Indeed, former President Trump himself directly cited Lott’s work recently as evidence of rising crime under President Biden.
Lott rests his claims on three pillars: polls showing most Americans believe crime is increasing; critiques of the FBI’s data collection; and 2022 data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) showing a substantial spike in violent crime.
For starters, a majority of Americans have inaccurately believed crime was increasing for decades, even during the dramatic decrease in crime that marked the late 1990s and early 2000s. Further, as crime data analyst Jeff Asher has pointed out, there has been a major partisan divergence in recent years on crime likely due to political rhetoric and conservative media outlets promoting the narrative that crime is increasing.
Lott argues that the FBI’s data collection is deeply marred by a drop in people reporting crime and the failure of many local law enforcement agencies to report data. While the FBI switched data collection systems in 2021, causing some reporting issues, these data holes were resolved by 2022, despite what Lott falsely claims. All major city agencies, except for Tucson, AZ, are now fully reporting data. While FBI data is not perfect, and never has been, it is not credible to suggest that FBI data is missing a historic crime surge.
Finally, Lott is correct that NCVS data shows an increase in violent crime in 2022, a year where the FBI shows a slight decrease. Yet this discrepancy does not automatically mean that the NCVS figures are correct and the FBI’s data is failing.
Homicide data from the CDC, crime data from the Council of Criminal Justice, and gun violence data from the Gun Violence Archive all fail to support the large increase NCVS data purports. Further, the discrepancy cannot be fully explained by people failing to report crimes to law enforcement.
Most importantly, the cited NCVS data was collected from 2021 to 2022. Using data from two to three years ago to dispute a current decrease in crime, which is supported by current data, is not an honest tactic.
Ironically, Lott himself argued that crime was surging in 2020 and 2021 during those years, pinning the crime increase on racial justice protesters and Democrat-led policies, but has now changed his story.
All of the current data available indicates that a crime wave is a political myth.
Further, pinning the mythical wave on migrants and liberal cities is doubling down on falsehood. A multitude of academic research shows that immigration, both legal and undocumented, does not increase crime rates.
Additionally, homicide rates and gun violence in conservative controlled areas increased more rapidly during the 2020 spike in crime, while liberal cities in liberal states have seen gun violence fall more rapidly in recent years than their counterparts in conservative states.
Seeking to blame crime on political “others” such as migrants and liberals rather than promoting investments in making all communities safer is a time honored tactic on the political right. Americans should look up the data and refuse to buy into the crime wave mythos.
Devin Hughes is the President and Founder of GVPedia, a non-profit that provides access to gun violence prevention research and data.
Love reading your articles. They provide so much info that can be used in advocacy.