Elon Musk Promotes John Lott: What You Need to Know

On the heels of another school shooting, the richest man in the world boosts disinformation about gun violence

By: Devin Hughes

On September 10th John Stossel, a right-wing former journalist, released a carefully produced video amplifying the “good guy with a gun” myth using the work of John Lott. This video went viral in right-wing circles on X (formerly Twitter), with Elon Musk himself sharing the video with a “Wow.”

This boost from the world’s richest man meant the video has been viewed more than 10 million times, with tens of thousands of shares and likes.

The video itself falsely accuses the FBI of deliberately undercounting active shooting incidents in which a “good guy with a gun” intervened. Towards the end of the video, Lott repeats his fabrication that, “Every place in the world that’s banned all guns or all handguns has seen murder rates go up.” The rest of the video is interspersed with specific cases of defensive gun use to provide the erroneous impression that such cases are commonplace. 

I’ll first address the specific data-based claims made in the video. 

Lott has sought to discredit the FBI Active Shooter reports for many years, and since 2022 he’s claimed that the FBI is deliberately undercounting such shootings in which a defensive gun use occurred.

The FBI’s active shooter research found that armed civilians halted 4.4% of active shooter cases since 2000. Lott’s 2022 study erroneously claimed that at least 34.4% — and closer to 50% in recent years — have been stopped in such a fashion. 

I wrote a special report countering these claims that year as well, in which I uncovered that Lott’s findings result from covertly expanding the FBI’s definition of an active shooter event, despite Lott’s false public protestations that he is following the FBI’s definition. While the FBI uses the term “active shooting” to refer to attempted mass shootings, regardless of how many people that attempt kills or injures, Lott defines an “active shooting” as any shooting that occurs in public and is not part of another ongoing crime.

Lott’s study then only applies that new definition to cases in which there was a defensive gun use, while deliberately excluding thousands of cases in which a defensive gun use did not occur.

This deceptive tactic allows Lott to claim that the percentage of active shooter cases stopped by a defensive gun use is vastly higher than it is in reality, regardless of what definition of an active shooting one uses. The end result is blatant statistical malpractice.

Lott’s commentary in the video regarding the FBI is merely recycling these fabrications.

The other data-based claim Lott makes in the video regarding gun bans increasing murder rates is also false. As we explain in our Facts About Firearms Policy Initiative:

In 1946, the Japanese government banned the possession of firearms and swords by private citizens in principle, although the possession of hunting guns and artistic swords was permitted with a license. In 1958, changes were implemented to prohibit carrying guns and swords, regardless of whether the carrier was licensed. Murders in Japan have fallen by more than 75% since 1955, with no upward spikes as the chart below reveals. A 2006 study estimated gun ownership in Japan at 1 in 175 households.

Today, Japan has one of the lowest homicide rates in the world and gun violence is exceptionally rare. In 2017, only three people were fatally shot. Lott’s statement, “every place that has banned guns (either all guns or all handguns) has seen murder rates go up,” is disproved by Japan, as well as other countries as detailed by GVPedia.

These two claims are staples of a broader narrative arguing that “guns make us safer,” a narrative overwhelmingly rejected by statistical evidence. Yet the disinformation and fraudulent data produced by Lott is now not only being promoted by the richest man in the world, but also by former President Donald Trump to falsely allege that crime has skyrocketed during President Joe Biden’s tenure.

These are but the latest troubling uses of Lott’s falsehoods, which have also served as the intellectual bedrock for pro-gun legislation, court cases, and lobbying efforts around the U.S. and the world for decades. 

Disinformation is crucial to counter and is a root cause of gun violence. Without a coordinated, sophisticated campaign to counter this Firehose of Falsehood, myths will continue to dominate the public discourse, especially if the richest man in the world and a former President use even a fraction of their resources to amplify such disinformation. 

Lott has a storied history of fraudulent research, fabricating data, and a lot of weird unethical behavior (such as pretending to be a female student of his to heap praise on his own work).

With enough sunlight, Lott’s story will undermine his own work that serves as the foundation of not only the entire “guns make you safer” narrative the gun lobby relies on, but also the claims of skyrocketing crime made by the Trump campaign. 

Ignoring disinformation has failed as a strategy. We must change tactics.  

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