Myth-Busting Monday
Only 17% of guns used to commit crimes in Mexico originate in the U.S.
This article was originally published on GVPedia.
Summary:
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) data consistently shows that between 70% to 90% of guns recovered from crime scenes in Mexico originated in the United States.
From 2007-2008, Mexican authorities seized 29,000 firearms. They sent 11,000 of those guns to the ATF for tracing. The ATF successfully traced 6,000 of the firearms, 90% of which originated in the U.S.
From 2009-2014, Mexican authorities seized 158,560 firearms. They sent 104,850 guns to the ATF for tracing. The ATF found 73,684 firearms (or 70.3%) originated in the U.S.
The ATF helps Mexico determine the origin of all the firearms submitted for tracing, not just the firearms initially sold in the U.S. The ATF also provides this service to 138 other countries.
Researcher John Lott, however, claims that only 17% of guns used in crimes in Mexico originate in the U.S.
Lott’s claim is based on the unreasonable assumption that all untraceable and untraced firearms found in Mexico did not originate in the United States. Lott only uses the 2007-2008 data to support his claim.
Lott does not use the larger 2009-2014 data set in his calculations. Even with Lott’s unreasonable assumption about tracing, the larger data set disproves his 17% claim.
The best available evidence shows that at least 70% of guns used in crimes in Mexico originated in the U.S.
Lott’s Claim:
In his 2020 book, Gun Control Myths, Lott attempts to refute the claim that between 70% to 90% of guns recovered from crime scenes in Mexico came from the United States. Lott states that only 17% of guns used in crimes in Mexico come from the U.S. He further states the large discrepancy stems from Mexican authorities selectively requesting that the ATF trace only the recovered guns that Mexican authorities believe originate in the U.S.
Lott makes a similar argument in a 2019 Wall Street Journal article, claiming that only 17.6% of firearms seized by Mexican authorities could be traced back to the U.S. He claims an ATF study of data from 2009-2014 showing that 70% of crime guns in Mexico come from the U.S. was based on “a small subset of guns.”
In his WSJ article, Lott additionally references a different ATF report that says Mexico seized 29,000 guns from 2007-2008. Mexican authorities submitted 11,000 of those guns to the ATF for tracing. ATF was able to successfully trace 6,000 of those 11,000 guns. Of those 6,000 successfully traced guns, 90% came from the U.S. Lott concludes, “Thus by one estimate only about 17.6% of the firearms Mexico collected in total could be traced back to America.”
The Facts:
Lott’s claim in his 2020 book rests on the theory that Mexican authorities painstakingly examined every seized gun and chose only guns they believed to originate in the U.S. to send to the ATF for tracing.
No substantive evidence exists to indicate that Mexican authorities attempted to send only guns of U.S. origin to the ATF for tracing, as the ATF’s purpose is to help Mexico uncover where all of the firearms submitted for tracing come from, not just the firearms initially sold in the U.S. The ATF also provides this service to 138 other countries.
That 2019 Wall Street Journal article written by John Lott provides more details on why Lott reached the conclusion that only 17% of guns used in crimes in Mexico originated in the United States. It is important to note that Lott cites two different reports, one which determined that 70% of crime guns in Mexico come from the U.S., and the other which estimated that 90% come from the U.S.
Lott’s cited sample size (6,000 out of 29,000) comes from a Fox News interview with an ATF agent. The ATF data from 2007-2008 successfully traced 6,000 of 29,000 total firearms seized.
To reach the 17% statistic, Lott exploited the small sample size and made the unrealistic assumption that all of the untraceable and untraced guns did not originate in the United States.
In the Wall Street Journal article, Lott did not share the sample size of the study that found that 70% of guns used in crime come from the U.S., but the data comes from a 2016 U.S. Government Accountability Office report which has a much larger sample size than the 2007-2008 data.
The report stated Mexican authorities seized 158,560 firearms from 2009 to 2014. Of those, 104,850 (66.1%) were submitted to the U.S. for tracing. Of the 104,850 traced firearms, 73,684 firearms (70.3%) originated in the U.S.
Lott does not dispute these official government figures. After citing the 70% statistic, he wrote, “That’s a small subset of guns.” Notice that Lott here does not cite the sample size and specific numbers as he did with the 90% report. It is unreasonable to suggest that 66%, or 104,850 firearms, is a “small subset.”
Even if we were to accept Lott’s unfounded assumption that none of the 53,710 untraced firearms came from the U.S., the result would be 46.5% of Mexico’s crime guns originating in the U.S. This is still significantly higher than Lott’s false 17% statistic.
ATF data has consistently shown that most firearms seized by Mexican authorities originated in the United States. In addition to the two reports cited by Lott, a 2009 GAO report found that 87% of Mexican crime guns over the previous five years came from the U.S.
Sources:
John Lott, Gun Control Myths, 2020
John Lott, “Mexico’s Soaring Murder Rate Proves Gun Control Is Deadly,” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2019
“Firearms Trafficking: U.S. Efforts to Combat Firearms Trafficking to Mexico Have Improved, but Some Collaboration Challenges Remain,” GAO, January 2016, Pages 1, 8
William La Jeunesse, “The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.,” Fox News, December 24, 2015
“Firearms Trafficking: U.S. Efforts to Combat Firearms Trafficking to Mexico Have Improved, but Some Collaboration Challenges Remain,” GAO, June 2009, Page 2
Image by Jean-Paul Jandrain from Pixabay.