ICYMI - Stop Chasing Polls
Some in the gun violence prevention movement argue we should focus on issues that poll well -- this cautious approach is a mistake
Polling and focus group have long been a standard way to gauge public opinion. And for GVP advocacy groups, it’s a seemingly solid way to determine citizen desire to make change. But as GVPedia founder Devin Hughes explained in a recent op-ed for Armed with Reason, given the ferocious spread of disinformation in our digital age, polling isn’t always the only number to throw all your chips on if you hope to attain long-term success.
In case you missed it, here is the article again, below.
“The emphasis instead must be on education and changing minds, not chasing popularity.”
Stop Chasing Polls
By: Devin Hughes
Focus on education, not chasing polls
In response to the political chaos created by President Trump, some in the gun violence prevention movement argue we should focus only on poll-tested issues. When it comes to countering the gun lobby’s relentless spread of disinformation though, this cautious approach is a mistake — it will only lead to more lost ground in the long run.
Allow me to elaborate.
Chasing Polls
We see this strategy play out when strategic decisions are made to pursue only policies and messages that appeal to the broadest possible swath of the public. Once that is quantified, resources are then allocated to push forward only the messages and policies that test best, while letting other avenues languish.
Rather than attempting to educate Americans that owning a gun will make them less safe, strategy instead focuses on the importance of passing policies that poll well, such as safe storage and policies that directly impact only a subset of the population, like Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs). While safe storage laws and ERPOs are very important, life-saving interventions, they should be rigorously implemented and part of a more comprehensive strategy rather than isolated campaigns.
Similarly, polls and focus groups indicate that Americans are more comfortable with universal background checks (UBCs) than permit to purchase (PTP) legislation — which the data tells us is the more effective strategy.
Chasing polls may lead to the passage of important and valuable legislation, but the problem with this approach is that it does not address the biggest problem facing gun violence prevention: disinformation.
Fighting the Firehose of Falsehood
Against the gun lobby’s Firehose of Falsehood campaign, a poll-chasing approach is guaranteed to lose ground over the long run. Over time, the unchallenged Firehose will erode support from ever more policies, while much of the gun violence prevention movement keeps hopping from one poll-tested position to another, following public opinion rather than shaping it. Rather than plug the hole in a sinking ship, we are moving to the highest point so that we sink last.
The emphasis instead must be on education and changing minds, not chasing popularity.
We should focus on making the policies that save the most lives more popular. Policy should be based on what the academic research shows will save the most lives, not just on what is the most comfortable. We should use polls as a tool to understand what messaging can effectively promote proven narratives and legislation, rather than as a gauge for which narratives and legislation to pick in the first place.
Where We Should Focus
This is particularly crucial for countering the myth that guns make us safer. An overwhelming amount of evidence tells us this is not true, yet the majority of Americans believe it. This piece of disinformation is a root cause of gun violence. It is the reason most Americans purchase firearms. The popularity of the “guns make you safer” narrative has grown over time, carefully cultivated by the gun lobby over decades.
We will only make limited progress, if any, if we do not directly challenge this myth through sustained education campaigns. Bandaids don’t stop the spread of a virus, but inoculation campaigns can.
It is important to note that none of this is to suggest that caution be thrown to the wind and poll numbers disregarded entirely. Far from it. Polls are an important tool, but like any tool, must be used properly to be effective.
Use polls, don’t chase them. And directly challenge core myths by educating the public. Otherwise, the gun lobby will continue to prevail.
Devin Hughes is the President and Founder of GVPedia, a non-profit that provides access to gun violence prevention research and data.
Photo by Ketut Subiyanto; via Pexels.